By General Monzer El Ayoubi
Translation: Pierre A. Sarkis
Last Thursday night, seven GBU-38 JDAMbombs were dropped by several US FalconF-16 assault fighter planes on a military installation in Syrian territories to the west of the Euphrates River, in the province of Eastern Deir Al Zor, next to a surveillance and control point close to the Syrian-Iraqi borders. The air strike destroyed its target, killing 22 members of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, and Iraqi Hizbollah, which was a clear reversal ofthe retreat policy by the US, for against all expectations, the air strike was an uncalled and unaccounted for surprise. It was the first strike carried out by US forces in Syria by the Biden Administration.
Subsequently, it was apparent that the Russian Military Headquarters at the military base of Hamimim was not informed in advance about the US air strike, until after the fighter planes squadron had taken off, meaning just few minutes before hitting its target. That wasin clear violation of agreed-upon rules of engagement, between the US and Russia in Syrian air space, in order to avoid any costly mistakes, which enraged and infuriated Moscow, leading the latter to denounce the US air strike, and calling on Washington to respect Syrian sovereignty. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov considered that “the presence of US forces in Syria is illegal, and contradicts all the norms and obligations of international law, including UN Resolution 2254 concerning the Syrian settlement”. He emphasized that “the Russian and US military are still in contact within the framework of coordination to “prevent any confrontation”, stressingparamount importance on the resumption of contacts on the political and diplomatic levels between Moscow and Washington regarding Syria.
From another perspective, if the effects of the US air strike guard against it being a cause for slipping into open confrontation, as in the backdrop of its tactical and military field-based activities, the strike was the result of intelligence reports from the Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS), despite the latter’s denials, claiming that these installations were being used by some Iranian-supported militias, and that the strike was in response to the recent missile attacks targeting US positions in Iraq,leading to the death of a US contractor and injuring others. In contrast to what the New York Times reported, the political motive was beyond action and counteraction, in that it was an exchange of positive or negative messages, in light of improving the conditions, or expandingthe options between Iran and the US, before launching negotiations related to the nuclear agreement, with Iran committing to itsprovisions, especially as far as enriching uranium is concerned, to go along with the partial lifting of US sanctions.
Alternatively, there is no doubt that the present US Administration finds itself caught in the middle, between two group of allies: the first, the harmed ones, who oppose the return of the US to the Iranian Nuclear Agreement, such as, Israel and some Arab Gulf Countries; the second, the convinced and beneficiaries of the agreement, such as, the 5+1 countries,signatories to the agreement. Consequently, the Biden Administration cannot remain in the grey area seeming reluctant, if not downright confused, weak, and helpless for several reasons, least of which are the campaign promises by President Biden.
As a result, it appears that through the US air strike, President Biden has committedhimself to follow two open strategic options: the first is not a continuation of the policies of ex-President Barrack Obama; and the second is totally opposed to the decisions taken by his predecessor, President Donald Trump. Ned Price, spokesman for the US Department of State, considered the policy of applying extreme pressure on Iran a failure, adding that it pushedIran closer to producing nuclear weapons, and with the US calling for an end to the Yemeni War, it seems that the diplomatic choiceremained the viable probable course of action, even if it was in tandem with a show of force,which is embedded in this policy.
In conclusion, with the Biden Administration deeply immersed in fighting COVID 19, and addressing domestic economic and social problems, attention to external affairs will proceed, albeit at a slow pace. The aspect of the US air strike was not in its military results, but in its symbolic political indicationson the regional front, and in what US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated “we are confident about the target we pursued- we know what we hit”. Decoding his message meant that the US will regain, and resume its role in Syria, and matters will be measured by their timing and results.
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Beirut, 28/02/2021
