By General Monzer El Ayoubi*
Translation: Dr. Pierre A. Sarkis
The Sino-Russian rapprochement, which is very close to a strategic alliance, remains a subject open for discussion and analysis by observers and analysts. Despite the departure of the Trump Administration and the arrival of President Joe Biden to the White House, relations between Washington and Beijing are becoming increasingly tense, even deteriorating in light of deliberate shortcomings, and a hardline US policy. In the broad headlines of the causes and the facts, the aspects and merits have become also known, including for example, but not limited to, the technological and commercial development of the Chinese economy, and its steady and advanced control of world markets in parallel to the no-mercy competitiveness by both sides, shown by economic sanctions, preventing the entry of some technological products, raising taxes and customs duties to an unprecedented level, etc…
Alternatively, Russian-American relations are very similar to their Chinese-American counterpart, but with the key addition of Russian progress in the military field and military manufacturing now closely competitive with Western arms, if not superior in some of its types, starting with conventional weapons “armored vehicles such as the advanced Vitayz System dedicated to directing armored weapons BMP-3 and BTR-82 AT, and the self-propelled Howitzers COALITION-SV, in addition to smart weapons and its enormous capabilities in the types of ammunition and shooting patterns.” Regarding the S-400 and S-500 Air Defense Missile Systems, their superiority raises no doubts, while ballistic missiles of the AVANGUARD-Hypersonic Group with their nuclear warheads and super maneuverability, are immune to interception.
Meanwhile, tension levels increased in recent days exceeding diplomatic action to operational military activity in the South China Sea and the sea lanes directly under the supervision of the commander of the US 7th Fleet, Vice-Admiral Phillip G. Sawyer, amid an atmosphere of caution and mutual anticipation. James Char, an expert in strategic affairs at Nanyang University of Technology considered that “China’s mounting military power undoubtedly forms a threat to other Asian countries and the US.” However, the Chinese Army needs several years to be fully prepared, and must exercise caution before engaging in actual battles.
Subsequently, US pressure forced the two Asian giants to raise their level of cooperation to the extent of an economic and military alliance, which crystallized after the visit of Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, to Beijing few days ago during which he held a series of meetings with his Chinese counterpart to discuss the depth and magnitude of the Alliance. It should be noted that the tense and charged atmosphere across the Pacific Ocean has come under the monitoring scrutiny of the European Union, with similar measures taken in clear tandem with US policy.
This brief presentation begs the fundamental question on the prospect of confrontation with both China and Russia for President Biden and his general staff. What would be the strategic margin through which issues and interests could be arranged? If an all-out military confrontation is far-fetched, nothing prevents combat skirmishes with a breach of the rules of engagement from time to time, especially in the South China Sea, since the military doctrine of the Chinese People’s Army has shifted from the defensive “Great Wall” to the offensive “fight in a neutral area or in enemy territory.” This has been practically translated, with the entry of the first aircraft carrier “Shandong-T002” into service in the Chinese Navy for over a year now, with another one one under construction, in addition to advanced submarines which are cruising the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Simultaneously, with Moscow believing itself to be Washington’s equal partner in managing global affairs, its geopolitical and strategic alliance with Beijing will be an added value to both of them. With such backlog and other accumulations that cannot be enumerated or explained, it seems inevitable that all three powers will drift into a cold war, different from that of the former Soviet Union Era, as a result of the changing structures and systems at the global level, which will place their bilateral or mutual relationship on a rigid tightrope, with positive or negative ramifications on the world order for decades to come.
In a related context, Russia and China need each other within a reciprocal friendly relationship at all levels, as is the case with the US and the European Union. The stimulus package for the needs and ambitions of both axes are more than enough. In addition, the three leaders, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden, are pragmatic with preponderant rationalism, which means that the reduction or freezing of tensions despite the alliances, is of essence.
In parallel, China is resolved in its options, to expand its influence and demonstrate its ability to fight the American superpower, which recently crystallized with the signing of the treaties of the new strategic alliance between China and Iran, and thus, the realization of the strategic Silk Road. Russian natural gas, which is its economic lifeline, remains its strategic priority. US sanctions should not hinder the North Stream 2 pipeline project linking Russia and Germany, as well as, the “Power of Siberia” project. Hence, the challenges facing Washington in its confrontation with the bipartite alliance are not simple, and will force her to resort to compromises, which should suit everyone.
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Beirut, 31/03/2021
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*Scholar in Security and Strategic Affairs
