By General Monzer El Ayoubi*
Translation: Dr Pierre A. Sarkis
As was expected, the French presidential elections resulted in a well-deserved victory “58% of the votes” for French President Emanuel Macron by giving him a new mandate. And despite many internal factors that contributed to his return to the Elysee in terms of political and economic performance, highlighted by addressing the COVID-19 pandemic to an acceptable degree, a key factor which increased his credibility and contributed to his victory was enhanced by the foreign policy and the diplomatic mobility led by Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, in line with Macron’s vision of achieving France’s strategic objectives, to preserve and stabilize its position on the European and regional stage as a great power impossible to bypass.
On the other hand, his faltering presence in Beirut as an interlocutor with the parties and leaders of the political authority “although most of them evaded commitments and promises” was an attempt to find common denominators that will draw up a road map to lift the country from its crises. It was not a negative sign but rather considered a reward by the French elites, for the attempt which yielded a Lebanese passing-the-time government while urging the achievement of parliamentary elections. Convinced that the political and economic impasse is the work of the ruling class oligarchy which tightly controls the country and people, the bet now is to pursue his initiative after being freed from the burden of renewing the mandate.
Subsequently, the Framework Memorandum of Understanding of the Saudi-French Fund for the support of the Lebanese people was formed with the aim of financing 35 projects in six major sectors, such as, food security, health, education, energy, internal security… The first steps come in accordance with the directives of President Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, the initiative coming from the former and the conviction of the latter, noting that the French Agency for Development will officially oversee the disbursement of funds. It is expected that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will contribute to the fund. Furthermore, this step on the eve of important constitutional entitlements seemed to be a station for catching breath “despite the lack of hope” that could lead to some breakthroughs that would be positively reflected in the dire living and social conditions.
Simultaneously, President Macron has played, and continues to play an important role in his attempt to cool down the Russian-Ukrainian war. He still maintains channels of communications with Russian President Vladimir Putin in tandem with his commitment to the decisions of the G7 and the European Union, particularly in terms of imposing sanctions on Moscow and raising its pace. In his transparent positions relating to France’s interests and historical principles, he declared his solidarity and support for the Ukrainian people, and strongly condemned the Kremlin’s decision to launch the war and called for an immediate end to military operations, in parallel with limited military defense support in type and quantity.
In fact, the Russian military operation is a focal point in European history because of its future repercussions and consequences on the geopolitical and strategic scene, while the implications on the Russian economy cannot be ignored, such as, stopping the import of oil and gas as the principal importer of energy to Europe. As the military operation was of great concern for the states of the former Soviet Union, it prompted most Baltic states to abandon their neutrality and throw itself in the lap of NATO.
In decoding his speech during the huge military parade that culminated in Moscow’s celebrations of the ninth victory day of the current month, the Russian President will spare no effort in establishing the front lines later as there is no turning back, and will draw through the geographical change imposed by the theater of operations, as well as, the size and extension of the active military operation and its timeline, the new European reality. This reality is not a response or fulfilment to the harsh sanctions imposed by the US and its allies, but rather an enforcement of the Kremlin’s strategy to prevent an all-out war, or “World War III” through the annexation of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in Ukraine’s far East, with the main objective being to disarm Ukraine, and insure the formation of a buffer zone away from NATO borders.
Finally, in the vision of President Macron and the Elysee staff:
– The Russian-Ukrainian war will be prolonged and must be prepared for, and may extend to other regions on the European stage.
– Europe has no choice but to become a superpower, especially if the polar trilogy “America, Russia, China” has its way in ruling the globe.
– Achieving strategic balance against Moscow is possible through a close political, economic and military alliance with Germany.
– Working to form a unified European army has become a necessity, making the old continent stronger and more independent able to meet the challenges now or in the future.
Beirut, 11/05/2022
*Scholar in Security and Strategic Affairs
